Topsail By-Election

On Tuesday March 16th, voters in the provincial district of Topsail will go to the polls in a by-election to fill the seat of Conservative Beth Marshall who was appointed to the Senate in January.

The governing Progressive Conservatives have former CBS Deputy Mayor, and high profile police officer, Paul Davis carrying the Tory colours. Brian Nolan has thrown his hat in the ring for the New Democrats and the Liberals are pinning their hopes on newbie and last second candidate Shane Kennedy. He approached the Grits after Peter Dawe withdrew for health reasons – although conspiracy theorists feel there is more to the story. No evidence mind you, but why let facts distort their opinions.

The results are a for-gone conclusion. This by-election is as close to a gimme for the PC’s as it gets. No need for visits from eight or nine Cabinet Ministers as we saw in the Straits-White Bay North. The Premier is not needed here.

Expect Davis to pull around 75% of the votes cast. I do think, however, we’ll have less of the a turnout than we saw in 2007 when 5891 people voted and Marshall received 83% of the vote – the largest margin of victory in any of the 48 districts. This was up from her 65% in 2003. While her personal popularity was never in doubt, many felt she was unfairly banished to the backbenches because she stood up to Williams. She received widespread support and sympathy from the public, which ironically, had an impact on her overwhelming win. Some constituents were pissed at Williams and to show their disgust, voted for Marshall in Danny-ese numbers, ensuring the seat for the Tories.

As one of those constituents, I often wondered how Marshall would have faired if she had run as an independent. No matter where she sat in the House, she would have been just as effective over the past six and a half years. That’s not a knock against Marshall, but when you look at some of the ministers today - I mean Joan Burke and Ross Wiseman? C’mon. Of course, the other argument is that there are slim pickin’s on the backbenches.

But it boggles the mind how someone Williams had so much faith in – enough to appoint to the always controversial and demanding Health portfolio in 2003 – could go from being a star to an afterthought. The guy can certainly hold a grudge.

Which leaves us to tomorrow’s by-election. An early congrats to Mr. Davis. He appears to be competent enough (but so was Marshall). Competency, however, was never a requirement for election to any level of government regardless of party. Hopefully, he’ll be an effective member who remembers not to piss off the boss.